Cloud Seeding in the UAE: The Truth Behind Those Heavy Rains Everyone's Talking About

Cloud seeding is fundamentally about efficiency, not creation. Think of it as tuning a car engine to get better mileage from the same fuel — except here, the "fuel" is naturally occurring water vapor in existing clouds. NCM experts previously said seeding could increase rainfall by about 30 per cent in a clean atmosphere, and by 15 per cent in a dusty atmosphere, but this enhancement only works when nature provides the right conditions first.

The process works by introducing hygroscopic materials in flares that contain natural salts such as potassium chloride and sodium chloride into promising clouds. These salt particles act like tiny magnets for water vapor, helping droplets grow large enough to fall as rain rather than evaporate.

What cloud seeding cannot do is create weather systems from clear skies. As atmospheric scientist Andrew Dessler noted on X: "If you seed clouds all the time (which they do), then when intense rain occurs (which eventually it will) you may conclude that cloud seeding was responsible" — but that's correlation, not causation.

The effects are also temporary and localized. Scientists from the University of Reading noted that the effects of cloud seeding are typically short-lived, lasting for a few hours and only impacted a particular region.

The UAE's approach is more sophisticated than many realize. The NCM's cloud seeding operation is a comprehensive process that begins with extensive data collection and analysis. Experts first gather data from radars, ground stations, and satellites to create daily weather forecasts.

Once meteorologists identify suitable clouds, a special aircraft is dispatched to fly around it and collect data on its structure. This analysis helps determine the optimal time and location for a successful seeding operation. When conditions are right, the aircraft, equipped with special flares, flies into the clouds.

The UAE uses a hygroscopic approach rather than the silver iodide method common elsewhere. NCM General Director Abdulla Al Mandous told CNBC that Abu Dhabi's program does not use silver iodide, a common crystal-like material used as a seeding agent in other countries.

Instead, the flares release seeding agents, such as salt crystals mixed with magnesium, sodium chloride, and potassium chloride. These hygroscopic agents absorb water and accelerate the formation of larger rain droplets. The NCM's aircraft typically carry 48 flares for a single three-hour flight.

The program operates year-round, with hundreds of these flights occurring annually in the UAE. But success depends entirely on natural weather conditions providing suitable clouds to enhance.

The current spell of heavy rainfall across the UAE has prompted the familiar question: is this all artificial? The answer is definitively no, though cloud seeding may have enhanced what was already happening naturally. "Unstable weather was expected to persist until at least Friday, March 27 – including rain of varying intensity," the meteorology centre said. This language indicates natural weather patterns, not artificial intervention.

The scale and intensity of recent rainfall events exceed what cloud seeding can achieve. As climate scientist Dr. Robert Rohde noted on X: "Cloud seeding may sometimes make small changes around the margins (though even that gets debated), but a lot of other factors had to align to get the severe flooding in Dubai".

Natural atmospheric conditions are the primary driver. The National Centre of Meteorology said clouds moving from the west will trigger convective systems over scattered areas throughout the week. Rainfall will range from light to heavy at times, with lightning, thunder, and a small chance of hail during strong cloud activity.

The UAE's infrastructure challenges also play a role. Climate change is predicted to lead to higher temperatures, increased humidity and a greater risk of flooding in parts of the Gulf region. These issues could be worsened in nations like the UAE which do not have adequate drainage infrastructure to manage heavy rainfall.

What likely happened is that natural weather systems created conditions for significant rainfall, and ongoing cloud seeding operations may have enhanced this by the typical 10-30% — but the bulk of the precipitation came from natural processes.

While the UAE uses salt-based hygroscopic seeding, understanding silver iodide helps explain the broader science. Silver iodide has a crystalline structure similar to ice, and freezing nucleation is induced by introducing substances similar to silver iodide.

The key is providing nucleation sites — surfaces where water vapor can condense more easily. The hygroscopic material most commonly used is table salt. It is postulated that hygroscopic seeding causes the droplet size spectrum in clouds to become more maritime (bigger drops) and less continental, stimulating rainfall through coalescence.

For the process to work, very specific conditions must exist. Some seasons had average temperatures during icing warmer than -2°C which may be too warm for any known seeding agent to work effectively. Studies examining mountain top temperatures revealed that clouds are too warm for effective AgI seeding in a large portion of all storm passages.

The UAE's salt-based approach works differently, targeting warm clouds rather than supercooled ones. Scientists distinguish "warm" (above 0°C) and "cold" clouds (below 0°C) and use different seeding chemicals accordingly. With cold clouds, silver iodide and liquid propane are most common, whereas warm clouds require hygroscopic salt particles — the technique used across the UAE.

The amounts used are tiny. A typical silver iodide flare of 100 grams only contains 10 grams of the active ingredient, while UAE salt flares contain about 1 kilogram of salt material components and can take up to three minutes to burn.

Cloud seeding is far from a reliable weather control system. Success requires a precise combination of natural conditions that often don't align. Ideal conditions for UAE's hygroscopic seeding: - Convective clouds with sufficient liquid water content - Warm cloud temperatures (above 0°C) - Adequate atmospheric moisture and instability - Low to moderate wind speeds for effective particle distribution - Clean atmospheric conditions (dust reduces effectiveness) During the spring, summer, and autumn seasons, cloud-seeded technology is effective over Ethiopia when the daily U and V wind speed is less than 1.5 m/s and cloud base height is less than 1700 m.

However, cloud-seeded technology is not applicable when the daily U and V wind speed is greater than 1.5 m/s. Similar principles apply globally. The UAE's program shows mixed results even under operational conditions. Results indicate an average increase of 23% in annual surface rainfall over the seeded target area, along with statistically significant change points detected during 2011 — but this represents the cumulative effect across many operations, not success in every individual mission.

Global studies show the challenge: In studies reviewed by the U.S. GAO, estimates of additional precipitation ranged from 0 to 20 percent. However, it is difficult to evaluate the effects of cloud seeding due to limitations of effectiveness research. Seeding fails when natural conditions aren't right — no amount of salt particles can create rain from dry air or stable atmospheric conditions.

The technology remains fundamentally dependent on nature providing the raw materials.